By Deri Draper-Amason
As digital technologies, artificial intelligence, and interconnected systems continue to transform defense and industry, organizations face a growing challenge: anticipating risks before they become operational problems.
Traditional risk management approaches are effective at identifying and mitigating known risks. However, many of today’s most significant challenges emerge from complex interactions among people, systems, data, supply chains, policies, and mission environments. These “emergent risks” are often difficult to detect until their effects are already being felt.
Research underway at Old Dominion University’s Center for Mission Engineering is exploring how mission engineering can be applied not only to understand mission performance, but also to improve risk forecasting. By integrating mission context, readiness evidence, system interactions, and AI-enabled analytics, organizations may be able to identify weak signals and emerging vulnerabilities earlier in the decision-making process.
This work supports a broader vision of Operational Readiness in the AI Era, which examines how human judgment, artificial intelligence, mission understanding, and evidence-based decision making can be integrated to improve organizational performance and mission success.
As AI-enabled systems become increasingly common, the ability to forecast and anticipate risk may become just as important as the ability to manage it. Mission engineering offers a promising pathway toward helping organizations move from reactive risk management to proactive risk forecasting—strengthening readiness, resilience, and mission outcomes.
